Contrast of regional flood prediction methods through GEV distribution in the lower Pánuco River watershed.

Abstract

This paper is composed of four parts. In a general way, in the first part, the formulation of regional flood prediction methods is cited and the exclusion of Guayalejo River is justified. In the second part, the hydrometric information of 25 gauging stations of the lower Pánuco River watershed is described, the processed gauging stations are defined by mean annual flood-watershed area relation, and the General Extreme Values (GEV) distribution is fitted to the selected records to find the observed predictions. In the third part, five regional procedures are described briefly and applied: index-flood method, median standardized values method, station-year method, regional PWM method, and weighted PWM method. Lastly, in the fourth part, the contrast between regional and observed predictions is carried out using the relative error as quantitative measure. Several conclusions are formulated from the results of this contrast.