Statistical analysis and applied mathematical to determine the sustainable risk in water supply and sanitation, Costa Rica
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-14-04-09Keywords:
Risk index, generalized lineal model, logistic function, lineal function, sustainability, rural areasAbstract
This paper describes the procedure for the construction of the sustainability risk index in the provision of water and sanitation services (IRSSAS), in the Administrator Associations of Aqueduct and Communal Sewerage Systems (ASADAs) in Costa Rica. Statistical analysis and applied mathematics were used for the construction of this index. The IRSSAS conceptual framework considers the water resource management, environmental sanitation, environmental education, the socioeconomic development index and the impact of natural hazards on the territories where rural aqueducts are located. With the use of statistical analysis and applied mathematics, a generalized linear model was validated to normalize the variables, obtaining linear and logistic curves depending on the type of data. The IRSSAS was calculated on a sample of 77 aqueducts in the provinces of Puntarenas and Guanacaste, subsequently, it was validated in a sample of 21 ASADAs in the province of Cartago. Risk index was adjusted by comparing the results obtained by the mathematical equations compared with the real values found in the field, with the coincidence of the IRSSAS being at 95%. Five levels of risk in the sustainability of the service were categorized; 75% of the ASADAs analyzed were classified with risk values between very high, high and medium. IRSSAS could be used by government institutions, ASADAs or academia for investment planning and continuous management improvement.
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