Modelo matemático determinístico para pronóstico de crecientes en cuencas rurales

Abstract

The fundamental ideas about the hydrological warnings and forecast are given at the beginning, with a general description of the mathematical models. These are the framework to the brief presentation of general characteristics of the described model. The infiltration process and the simulation algorithm are related in defail, including the proposed approach for their calibration. The unit hydrograph concept and the mathematical formulation are also given, with the ordinates identification techniques by least squares and non-linear programming. The watersheds subdivision is justified and the necessity of hydrologic routing of floods in reservoirs and rivers is emphasized; the algorithms used in the model are described. Lastly, the estimation procedures of base flow, synthetic unit hydrographs, hypothetical storms and multivariable constrained non-linear optimization algorithm are described. All the above are the theoretical aspects of the model; their integration, validation an applications in complete and subdivided watershed are related in detail. The main advantages and limitations of the model are given, in relation to their extensive use. Suggestions are made to adapt this type of deterministic hydrological tool for use in Mexico.