Simulation of the supply guarantee for the water demands in Mexicali, B.C.

Abstract

In this research work, a simulation exercise is carried out for the guarantees in the water demands in Mexicali, considering a control scenario with period from 2005 to 2018 and a future scenario with projection from 2020 to 2040. In said projections the reductions in water deliveries to Mexico stipulated in Minute 323 of the IBWC are included. The AQUATOOL water resources management software has been used, with which the guarantees in the water supply to the control scenario and in the future have been evaluated, also including a new industrial demand with an amount of up to 20 Hm³ per year. This new demand was evaluated both in the future scenario and in the control period, to simulate what could have happened if it had existed previously. The result shows that there are occasions in the control scenario in which there are some failures in the supply guarantees. The current situation of stress and pressure on water resources, added to the effects of climate change, in the Colorado River basin and especially in the city of Mexicali, make it unwise to add new demands to the system, since this intensifies competition by water resources.