Simple operational process for the flood frequencies analysis with partial duration series
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2025-03-07Keywords:
Annual series of maximums, partial duration series, threshold values, Poisson-Pareto distribution, graph of average residual exceedances, dispersion index, predictions, relative errorAbstract
Through frequency analysis, the design floods (DF) are estimated, maximum river flows corresponding to low probabilities of being exceeded. With the DF, dikes and protection walls, bridges and urban drainage are hydrologically dimensioned. Frequency analysis generally processes the observed annual maximum flows or Annual Series of Maximums (SAM), but all flows that exceed a threshold value (vu) or Partial Duration Series (SDP) can also be processed, complying with the condition of being independent. The essential disadvantage of the SAM lies in considering only the maximum annual event, ignoring secondary values, which may exceed the maximums of other years. As the SDP is made up of a greater number of events, its predictions or DFs are more reliable. In this study, the SDP are integrated from the record of maximum monthly flows, adopting as the minimum vu x0, the lowest maximum annual flow, and as the maximum vu the one that defines as many excess flows as years of the SAM record. The adopted vu accepts, graphical and numerically, the Poisson-Pareto distribution and leads to the lowest standard error of fit for the analyzed SDP data. The suggested operational process is applied in five hydrometric stations in two hydrological regions of Mexico and concludes with the contrast of SAM and SDP predictions. Finally, conclusions are formulated, which highlight the simplicity of the process and the accuracy of its predictions.
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