Modelación del impacto del deshielo en lo caudales en la cuenca del lago Mansfield Hollow en Connecticut, EUA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2025-05-08Keywords:
Connecticut, deshielo, HEC-HMS, lago Mansfield Hollow, termodinámicaAbstract
Las predicciones de escorrentía son esenciales para minimizar los peligros de inundación y aumentar la resiliencia ante eventos climáticos extremos. En este estudio se realizó un análisis para simular la escorrentía del deshielo en la cuenca del lago Mansfield Hollow, que es un afluente de la cuenca del río Támesis en Connecticut, Nueva Inglaterra, EUA. El modelo HEC-HMS del Cuerpo de Ingenieros del Ejército de los Estados Unidos (USACE, por sus siglas en inglés) se aplicó para simular la escorrentía del deshielo durante el invierno-primavera de 2010 y 2019. La cuenca del lago Mansfield Hollow se compone de tres afluentes principales: Fenton, Mount Hope y Natchaug. Estas simulaciones de escorrentía y la respuesta de la cuenca al deshielo son cruciales para evaluar los impactos potenciales de las decisiones de manejo de la cuenca, particularmente durante los periodos de alto caudal. El modelo HEC-HMS fue calibrado durante el evento de 2010 y validado para los eventos de 2019. El estudio encontró que para las tormentas de nieve durante los eventos de 2010 y 2019, el modelo HEC-HMS proporcionó predicciones muy precisas de la escorrentía del deshielo con R2 y valores de correlación de Nash-Sutcliffe superiores a 0.76. Estos hallazgos resaltan la eficacia de los modelos HEC-HMS para simular la escorrentía del deshielo, y demuestran la utilidad de dicho modelo para predecir y gestionar los riesgos de inundación. Los resultados de este estudio brindan información valiosa sobre los impactos potenciales de la escorrentía del deshielo e informarán las futuras decisiones de gestión de cuencas hidrográficas en la cuenca del lago Mansfield Hollow y regiones similares.
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